2009 CFL Western Preview - British Columbia Lions

Football Betting Lines

06/23/2009 - Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record - 12-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-18, to Calgary in divison finals. Stadium - B.C. Place. Capacity - 29,706. Colors - Orange, black and silver

Last season, had the Lions been playing in the East Division of the CFL they would have been tied for first place with Montreal, thanks to a points total that numbered 22. Instead, BC was third in the tougher West Division, the only team among the four with a losing record against the rest of its members.

This year general manager and head coach Wally Buono is hoping to move his squad up the totem pole and give it a better shot at postseason glory. The Lions' all-time leader in wins with 74, Buono has gotten his group into the postseason in each of the last six years and into the Grey Cup tilt in 2006, but the three-time CFL Coach of the Year still has something to prove.

Guiding the British Columbia offense in 2009 is Buck Pierce, the quarterback now entering his fifth season out of New Mexico State University. Pierce had his most successful season thus far in 2008 when he completed better than 64 percent of his pass attempts for 3,018 yards and 19 touchdowns. Much more a part of the offense a season ago, Pierce still has some kinks to work out after tossing nine interceptions.

Former Notre Dame product Jarious Jackson provides a dual threat for the Lions because he can both pass (2,164 yards and 17 TDs last season) and run (362 yards) to keep defenses off balance and give the BC offense a different look from time to time.

Not to be completely overlooked is second-year man Zac Champion, someone who could easily step in and make throws in a pinch for the Lions.

Wideout Terence Scott should be one of the go-to guys on the outside for Pierce, even though he is in his first year and has signed on as a free agent. O'Neil Wilson showed huge promise in just his third season back in 2006 when he played for Montreal, catching 92 balls for 1,056 yards and yet he failed to take any one of those into the end zone. A drop-off in production the last couple of seasons means he is due to bounce back.

At running back, Ian Smart figures to be the man getting most of the carries, considering how the depth chart is beginning to shape up with some other inexperienced runners. The knock on Smart is that he is prone to putting the ball on the turf, something he did seven times on just 32 carries two seasons ago. On average, Smart has dropped the ball, literally, once out of every five attempts, something that doesn't exactly make him the most reliable guy on the roster.

Even though he was not the primary ball carrier while at Iowa the last few years, being a part of that run-happy Hawkeyes group means that Damian Sims knows what it takes to be productive and that translates into him getting a chance to show what he has for the Lions.

During training camp, the defense, specifically lineman Gary Butler, didn't exactly seem to be rolling along with the program and was instead rolling with the punches against fullback Rolly Lumbala during drills.

Perhaps the biggest problem facing the Lions is finding a replacement for Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Wake, who after logging an astounding 23 sacks, headed to the Miami Dolphins and the NFL.

Just as bad, BC also saw three key linebackers fall off the roster in Jamall Johnson, Jason Pottinger and Otis Floyd, which means the unit in the middle is having to regroup before they get too deep into the schedule.

Former Saskatchewan linebacker Anton Mackenzie was picked up to try and fill the void, but that still leaves some huge gaps that need filling. Defensive end Nautyn McKay-Loescher was brought in to hopefully ease the pain of losing Wake, but that won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination.

Some inexperience and growing pains on both sides of the ball will probably keep the Lions from reaching their full potential in 2009, and that in turn will have them struggling in the division yet again. Will it keep British Columbia out of the playoffs? We shall see.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Fourth

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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