Can Super Saver make it two in a Row?

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/14/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only one horse has a chance to win the Triple Crown and that's Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt will take the next step towards racing immortality this Saturday in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Super Saver benefited from a dream trip two weeks ago when jockey Calvin Borel hugged the rail throughout most of the Derby before drawing off to an easy 2 1/2-length victory over the fast-closing Ice Box. Borel has now won three of the last four Triple Crown events, including the 2009 Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra.

Can Super Saver duplicate his previous outstanding performance? It's quite possible, but the morning line favorite will not have the luxury of a sloppy race course this time around. That could be a huge factor since two of his three lifetime wins have come on off-tracks. In addition, the WinStar Farm homebred will not be running at Churchill Downs, a surface he absolutely adores.

There's no doubt the Derby winner is a very good colt in a year in which the three-year-old crop is loaded with average horses. But he has never posted back-to-back wins in his seven-race career, and his odds this coming Saturday will be much lower than the 8-1 the public received two weeks ago.

Super Saver's main competitor is Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky. The Bob Baffert-trained colt comes into the Preakness with a different jockey for the first time as Martin Garcia replaces Garrett Gomez in the saddle.

Trouble is this colt's middle name and the Kentucky Derby was just another in a long line of miserable trips for the son of Smart Strike.

Most public handicappers shied away from Lookin At Lucky in the Derby after the colt drew the inside post position in the 20-horse field. The two-year-old champ felt the consequences right away getting pushed from the eighth spot all the way back to 18th in a matter of seconds.

Lookin At Lucky still made an impressive move, closing from 18th to sixth as the field moved through the stretch, but he ran out of gas inside the final furlong without improving his position.

Even if Lookin At Lucky receives a better trip this Saturday, winning the Preakness might be asking a lot for this California-based three-year-old. It's been almost a decade since the last time a West Coast horse (Point Given in 2001) won the Preakness.

Moreover, it's hard to bet on a horse that consistently finds himself in tight quarters each and every race, especially as the probable second choice.

OTHER KEY CONTENDERS

Paddy O'Prado sports in-the-money finishes in six of his last seven appearances, including a third in the Kentucky Derby.

After racing just off the lead in his two previous starts, the son of El Prado came off the pace at Churchill Downs getting a similar rail trip to Super Saver. The only difference was the winner had a free and clear path while Paddy O'Prado had to veer in and out behind tiring horses.

There's no denying the fact he could improve on his third-place effort with a better trip, but don't forget, he still has won only one race in his seven- race career, not the prototypical record for a Preakness winner.

Super Saver's other three main challengers did not run in the Kentucky Derby.

Schoolyard Dreams makes his first start in six weeks after a dismal fourth to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial, and after the race, trainer Derek Ryan revealed the horse was less than 100 percent due to a slight throat problem.

Prior to that effort, the son of Stephen Got Even made a huge middle move in the Tampa Bay Derby, wresting the lead away from Super Saver around the final turn before losing to Odysseus by a nose. On the negative side, that race was already his third start in 2010 while Super Saver was making his first appearances in over three months.

Also, it's unclear whether Schoolyard Dreams will be as effective at the 1 3/16-mile distance compared to 1 1/16-miles, so proceed with caution at the betting windows.

Caracortado is another three-year-old that finished fourth in his latest race. However, the gelding had a legitimate excuse in the Santa Anita Derby as he was interfered with by a fast fading Lookin At Lucky.

Trainer Michael Machowsky has trained Caracortado up to the Preakness working him seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 in preparations for the colt's first trek over 1 1/8-miles.

Lightly-raced Yawanna Twist is the final horse with a shot at crossing the wire first on Saturday. His 30-1 morning line suggests little chance, but don't be deceived by that number. The stakes-placed three-year-old has as much talent as any other horse in this field.

His second-place finish in the Illinois Derby was a much better effort than it looked on paper. The race was only his fourth ever start and first away from his home base in New York.

It was also the first time Yawanna Twist stalked the leader on his own as he sat a length or two behind American Lion for the first six furlongs. He then ran head-and-head with the pacesetter from the far turn until the eighth-pole before failing to keep pace over the tiring and heavy Hawthorne surface.

Even with the loss, he still finished over 11 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. That experience should give the son of Yonaguska the bottom he needs to improve even more in his fifth career start.

Yawanna Twist is also bred to handle the extra distance as both his grandsire (Cherokee Run - 1993) and damsire (Oliver's Twist - 1995) finished second in the Preakness.

Selections: 1) Yawanna Twist; 2) Super Saver; 3) Lookin At Lucky

Rouelette Horseracing Betting News

<< Crew, Chivas clash before losing U.S. players
Columbus, Ohio (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Columbus is one of just two undefeated teams remaining in MLS but, like the unbeaten Los Angeles Galaxy, the Crew are about to face a spell without some of their top players. Columbus defender Chad Marshall

<< NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview - Orlando vs. Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics were able to put the NBA's best player, LeBron James, in the rear view mirror and are now moving on to the Eastern Conference finals for the second time in three years. Things don't figure to get any eas

<< AL Central: Problems abound for fading White Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After six weeks of play, delving into the Chicago White Sox' laundry list of problems is like opening Pandora's Box. Chicago (14-20) has not won back-to-back games since the final week of April, a feat the team has accomp

<< Canada, Denmark win big in opening qualifying matchups
Mannheim, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Tavares, the top overall pick of the 2009 NHL Draft, notched a hat trick in Canada's 12-1 rout of Norway in the qualifying round of the 2010 World Championship. Evander Kane added two goals and a

<< Reeling Revs hope to right ship vs. San Jose
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution host the San Jose Earthquakes at Gillette Stadium on Saturday in a battle of two Major League Soccer clubs heading in opposite directions. Since the two sides met in a league

Serie A title to be decided on final day >>
Rome, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Serie A title race has come down to the final day with defending champions Inter Milan holding a two-point lead on second-placed Roma. Inter can secure its fourth successive Scudetto with a win at r

Nebraska extends women's basketball coach Yori through 2015 >>
Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nebraska announced on Friday that women's head basketball coach Connie Yori received a three-year contract extension through the 2014-15 season. The National Coach of the Year, Yori led Nebraska to its

Wigan snaps up defender Alcaraz >>
Wigan, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wigan have agreed to a deal to sign Paraguay international defender Antolin Alcaraz from Belgian outfit Club Brugge. The 27-year-old center-back is a free agent this summer, having spent three seasons wit

Leonardo to step down as Milan boss >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - AC Milan have finally ended the speculation surrounding the future of Leonardo by confirming he will be replaced as coach after just one season at the San Siro. The former Brazil international was prom

St Johnstone duo receives new deals >>
Perth, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St Johnstone duo Peter MacDonald and Martin Hardie have been handed new six-month contracts as they battle back from long- term injuries. Both men missed a majority of the season just ended, but boss Der

Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.