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06/21/2010 -
DENVER (AP) -After hitting the jackpot with two high picks in the draft last June, the Colorado Avalanche feel the pressure to replicate that this summer.
Hardly easy.
Those two players they selected weren't your typical teenagers.
From now on, every Colorado draft pick will be measured against Matt Duchene (third overall) and Ryan O'Reilly (No. 33).
Hardly fair.
The performances Colorado received last season from Duchene and O'Reilly were far from the standard. The talented twosome became a crucial component in the team's turnaround, lifting the organization back into the playoffs a year after finishing in the basement.
``That instant success tells us we're on the right path,'' said Avalanche director of scouting Rick Pracey, whose team has seven total picks - including the 17th overall - during the two-day draft that begins Friday night. ``But I think the hockey fan base is knowledgeable enough to realize it's more of a wait and see thing.''
Wait and see didn't really apply to these two.
Duchene and O'Reilly made the team out of camp as the Avalanche became the first NHL squad to boast two 18-year-olds in the season opener since the Winnipeg Jets suited up Shane Doan and Jason Doig in 1995.
The youngsters held their ground quite nicely, too, the ever-elusive Duchene leading all NHL rookies with 55 points and O'Reilly contributing in less glamorous areas such as faceoffs and blocked shots.
And to think these two were almost sent to their major-junior squads for one more year of maturing.
Instead, Duchene moved into captain Adam Foote's basement to help advance his hockey education while O'Reilly took up residence with veteran Darcy Tucker.
With the duo's rapid rise, expectations have gone up.
``There is pressure on us,'' Pracey said of uncovering that next draft gem. ``But I think it's more that there is pressure for us to find a player than it is that plays next year.''
Going into this summer's draft, the Avalanche aren't really targeting a certain position.
Rather, they're taking a similar approach as last time - scouring for the best player available. That's how O'Reilly wound up in Colorado.
The team had him pegged as a top-15 prospect. So when O'Reilly began to tumble down the board, the Avalanche attempted to move up to snare him.
A trade partner couldn't be found, yet O'Reilly still fell to Colorado.
``We're confident that depending on how the board shakes out, we're looking at a group of players in our area that we'd be happy to get our hands on,'' Pracey said. ``But I would like to hit it out (of the park) every year.''
Colorado has actually had a string of bountiful drafts in recent years.
In fact, the 2010 playoff roster against the veteran-laden San Jose Sharks contained 16 players who were drafted by the franchise. That included another first-rounder in Chris Stewart (2006) and second-rounders such as T.J. Galiardi (2007), Paul Stastny (2005) and Ryan Stoa (2005).
Buoyed by a group of fledglings, no one really expected Colorado to accomplish much of anything last season.
Clearly, the prognosticators concluded, another last-place finish awaited.
The young players developed an us-against-the-hockey-world mindset, serving them well all season long. Colorado regrouped from a late-season slide to make the postseason for a 12th time in 14 seasons in Denver.
In the playoffs, Colorado had 12 different members make their debut in a loss to the Sharks, including coach Joe Sacco, who was hired soon after last season's meltdown and groomed this core of kids into a cohesive unit.
He relied heavily on the leadership of Foote, who recently signed on for one more season of mentoring despite turning 39 in July.
``Having a young group like we did last year come together and compete at a high level was very special,'' Foote recently said. ``We're looking to carry that momentum into next season.''
Another draft class like last season certainly would help. But striking gold twice is a difficult proposition.
``We are obviously very pleased with the way things worked out last year,'' Pracey said. ``But I think it's important to keep in mind that having two 18-year-olds play in the National Hockey League certainly isn't the norm. So we have to remind ourselves that this is a process.
``The best way to stay the course is to stay with the plan and not get ahead of ourselves - keep in mind what has been successful in the past.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.
Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.
The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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